Leaked Intel Says China’s Ready to Send Its Two-Million Troops to Ukraine…But Why Would They?

Hung Chung Chih/shutterstock.com

Both Russia and China are adamantly denying allegations that Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked the Chinese for help in defeating Ukraine and that they’ve agreed to do so. A Chinese government spokesperson said it was “disinformation,” but before deciding for ourselves, let’s have a closer look at what would be in it for China if anything.

Russia is considered China’s “most strategic partner” so they spend a lot of time between the sheets. But is what the Russians stand to gain worth China’s effort? Is it worth sending its 2,185,000 military troops barreling in to save the day and risk lighting the fuse of WWIII?

According to a U.S. intelligence report, Beijing has already let Moscow know that it’s willing and able to assist them both militarily and financially to help overcome its multitude of severe sanctions and frozen solid assets.

Former U.S. Defense Department official Drew Thompson believes that China may assist but not on a full scale the way Russia is alleged to have asked them to. He said China “probably wants to avoid high profile of big-ticket arms sales to Russia in the midst of a conflict which would expose Bejing to International sanctions.” 

Thompson said Bejing would more than likely provide consumables, spare parts, flares, and other items that will assist the Russians without crossing the line enough to get slapped with sanctions or make them a sounding board for international condemnation and reprisals. Any moves they make “would be measured and carefully calibrated.”

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University said, “China will be very careful trying its best to avoid its aid and other assistance being used on the battlefield of Ukraine. China has no motive to provide any assistance to Russia’s operation in Ukraine.”

The director of the International Security Program at Australia’s Lowy Institute, Sam Roggeveen, agreed with Yinhong. He said he can see no “upside” for China and that it may prove even more beneficial to the Chinese to see Russia weakened to a state of becoming more reliant on them.

China has yet to condemn the invasion as the rest of the world has done but they did make a point of saying how the integrity and sovereignty of all nations demand respect. 

Li Xin, director of the Institute of European and Asian Studies at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, defended Bejing. “Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has in nature become an invasion, and China will never provide arms to help a country attack another sovereign country and that is not in accordance with international law.”

From all indications, whoever leaked the information about China getting ready to wipe Ukraine’s plate clean may have received some bad intel. On the other hand, it would be foolish to underestimate or second guess the craftiness for which China is reputed.

Unlike the Western world, China doesn’t warn. Nor does it announce via public news media where, when, and even if, it’s going to strike. They just one day show up uninvited similar to the way the Japanese did at Pearl Harbor.

Experts can analyze, dissect, compile, and run their information through a ringer, but lest we forget, their final calculations are theories and opinions only. Their Ph.D. only gives them greater authority to guess what’s gonna happen which makes them not very smart at all for trying to outguess the Chinese, to begin with. Read that again. What’s going to happen is what’s going to happen.